This module considers the meteorological, climate, hydrological and oceanographic modelling together.

Second Year Results

Four basic type of numerical models were implemented or upgraded, calibrated and validated in the Montenegrin region during the second year of the project as a continuation of the work of the first year, in order to subsequently couple them for the climate scenario predictions. In particular the numerical models finalized this year were:

• A hydrological model (HNPM model) coupled to an atmospheric limited area nonhydrostatic model (NMM model) to simulate and predict surface runoff in Bojana River catchment. The model simulations showed skill in the reproduction of the observed data in 2003. Data assimilation techniques have been also applied to correct the model simulation, with the possibility to build an operational hydro-meteorological system;
• Two oceanographic models for the daily simulation and forecast of the coastal circulation. In particular the entire Adriatic Sea (AREG model) forecasting model has been upgraded with the introduction of tides and set operational on a daily basis. In addition, a high resolution, finite element model has been implemented on the southeastern coastal Adriatic Domain (coastal strip of Montenegro and Albania), and will be set operational during the third year of the project. Again during the third year the AREG model will be improved by adding a sediment transport module that will allow to simulate and forecast the dynamics of the sediments in the sea. In the framework of the oceanographic models, a trajectory model has been also implemented to simulate the dispersal of particles along the coastal strip.
• Surface wave models at various resolution. In particular the SWAN wave model has been implemented, calibrated and validated over the whole Adriatic basin, and other wave models at a higher resolution have been implemented on idealized basins, taking into account the interaction between wave and currents, and the erosion and deposition of the sediments in the sea. They will be used in the last year of the project to study the impact of waves and currents on the morphodynamics of Bojana river delta.
• Bojana river model (MIKE11 model) to simulate and predict river runoff and river water quality and sediment transport.
• The urban model of the city of Ulcinj (MOUSE model) to simulate and predict the urban waters flow and water quality.
• The EBU-POM model that downscaled, to a resolution of 0.25°, the climate scenario simulation from CMCC (resolution of 1.125°) in the period of time between 2001 and 2030 and produced a basin data set to be used in the third year to force all the above mentioned models.
  

The implementation of all these numerical models consists of the basis for all the activities integrated in the numerical models scheduled for the last year of the project.

First Year Results

During the first year of  the project the non-hydrostatic numerical meteorological model (NMM) has been implemented nested in the existing mesoscale model for the large Montenegro area. A new algorithm of data assimilation based upon Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) was developed to be used in the existing mesoscale model to assimilate in situ surface data sets. In addition the Hydrological Numerical Prediction Model (HNPM) has been coupled with the NMM.

The Adriatic forecasting system has been upgraded to run daily and the preliminary work has been carried out for the introduction of the tides in the marine circulation model. The analysis of  the seasonal circulation variability has been done from the model historical data set.

The hydraulic qualitative and quantitative model of the Bojana river has been implemented, calibrated and validated. The main characteristics of the sewage system of the Ulcinj town have been collected.

The development and implementation of models for the generation and propagation of waves  and for the interaction with wave-infrastructures and wave-coastline has been carried on large and small scales. Preliminary test cases have been studied;

In order to downscale climate scenarios, a software has been developed for the nested Nonhydrostatic numerical Meteorological Model (NMM) and the Hydrological Numerical Prediction Model (HMPB) that is capable to access the global climate fields from IPCC scenarios and uses them as lateral forcing for NMM.